Slowly moving to a sub-3

ZERO

Last Mastertrack day. Then went to the Puyallup Fair.

I've done some calculations on predicting my marathon time. The late Jim2, a well-respected and frequent contributor to the Runners World Online Forums, left a legacy of articles on the internet pertaining to running. One of the articles is on predicting a marathon time.

One of the best ways to predict a marathon time is from your current 10k time and your average weekly mileage. I don't have a 10k time but I can calculate it from my 5k times. My average mileage for the past 12 weeks has only been 30 mpw.

According to Jim2's article, you multiply your time by a factor based on your mileage. For 30 mpw, the factor is 5.5. For 40 mpw, it's 5.0. I did these calculations on a spreadsheet and came up with these possible goal times:

Conservative Jim2 time: 3:36 (8:15/mi)

Fastest Jim2 time: 3:13 (7:22/mi)

Midpoint Jim2 time: 3:35 (7:49/mi)

Some other goal/predictor times:

Portland Marathon PR: 3:27 (7:55/mi)

Marathon PR: 3:14 (7:24/mi)

BQ: 3:10 (7:15/mi)

McMillan Calculator: 3:02 (6:58/mi)

Daniels VDOT table: 3:01 (6:56/mi)

I feel like I have better than a 3:30 in me. I think I'll set my slowest goal to be a new Portland PR (3:27).

My BQ marathon pace (7:15/mi) feels a bit fast, but it's so much slower than what the calculators predict and it is close the the fastest Jim2 predictor time. I'll set BQ as my fastest goal (3:10).

The fastest Jim2 predictor would be a 1 minute PR for me, so this will be my main goal time (3:13).

Who knows, maybe I'll readjust these goals as the race nears.  

49:55 (8:07/mi)

Brad Lk x 4 

Brad Lk x 2

(need to update this blog and tomorrow's with Garmin data) 

Brad Lk x 4

Good run. It's getting darker and colder. I ran in shorts and T-shirt. No headlamp yet.

Just the faintest presence of an ache in my left pateller tendon. Hopefully tomorrow's hike in the mountains doesn't aggravate it. 

ZERO (sort of)

Went on hike with Chris and Rich up the Sahale Arm from Cascade Pass. Had to stop once we hit the glacier because we didn't bring our crampons and axes. The snow was very consolidated and not very soft. It would have been too easy to slip and slide into one of the hungry crevasses below. Sahale peak was just past the glacier.

Note to self: bring axe and crampons next time I hike to Cascade Pass. (and there WILL be a next time!)

The fall colors were out and the blueberries were delicious! Total hiking distance: about 12 miles. Elevation gain: about 4000 feet. 

ZERO

Went hiking with the family around Naches Peak by Chinook Pass. The Mountain was mostly obscurred by clouds, but many peaks could be seen in the distance. Fall colors everywhere and beautiful lakes and tarns around every corner.

Total hiking distance: 4 miles. Elevation gain: 900 feet.